2025年全球经济展望：非常道，大不同

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to stabilize and recover in 2024, with a new equilibrium emerging amid fluctuations[5] - The U.S. economy is showing robust growth, while Europe and Japan are gradually moving out of stagnation, and emerging markets are maintaining momentum[12] - Inflation is anticipated to return to policy targets in Europe by 2025, with central banks continuing to lower interest rates[4] Group 2: U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. economy is projected to have stronger endogenous growth and a higher inflation baseline compared to the previous Trump administration[29] - The "impossible trinity" of policy balance in the U.S. will likely see compromises between policy implementation and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[29] - The labor market remains tight, contributing to persistent inflationary pressures despite high interest rates cooling demand[17] Group 3: European Economic Challenges - Europe faces challenges of deindustrialization, with external demand shrinking due to trade policies, impacting job creation and wage inflation[4] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its rate-cutting pace to support economic recovery[4] Group 4: Japanese Economic Outlook - Japan's economy is experiencing weak recovery in domestic demand, with external challenges increasing due to global trade protectionism[29] - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes are expected to be slow following initial increases, as domestic consumption and investment may weaken[29] Group 5: Emerging Markets Performance - Emerging markets are projected to grow at 4.2% in 2025, with Southeast Asia and South Asia being the main growth drivers despite potential slowdowns[30] - The IMF has slightly downgraded growth forecasts for emerging economies, reflecting increased risks and uncertainties in the global landscape[30]