2024年11月外贸数据点评：出口仍不弱

Export Data - In November 2024, China's total export value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, down from 12.7% in October[2] - The trade surplus expanded to $97.44 billion in November 2024[2] - Exports to ASEAN grew by 14.9%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall export growth[13] Import Data - In November 2024, China's total import value decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 2.3% in October[2] - The seasonally adjusted month-on-month import growth rate was -3.7% in November 2024[22] - Imports from the US fell by 11.2%, dragging down overall import growth by 0.7 percentage points[25] Product Contributions - Mechanical and electrical products contributed significantly to exports, with a growth rate of 7.9%, adding 4.7 percentage points to total exports[15] - Integrated circuits showed the best performance in imports, growing by 3.7% but down 6.6 percentage points from October[27] Market Outlook - Anticipation of a "rush to export" phase due to potential new tariffs from the US under a re-elected Trump administration, which may disrupt external demand[3] - The average manufacturing PMI for key trading partners in Southeast Asia rose to 50.4, indicating economic recovery[13]