氢电耦合发展报告： 基于绿氢项目尺度的发展策略研究

Industry Overview - Hydrogen energy is a crucial component of China's future energy system, with green hydrogen expected to account for 10%-15% of the total terminal energy consumption by 2060, requiring approximately 3.6 trillion kWh of electricity annually, which is nearly one-fifth of the total electricity consumption [34] - Green hydrogen production relies on renewable energy sources like solar and wind power, which are intermittent and volatile, while industrial applications demand stable and continuous hydrogen supply, necessitating a balance between renewable energy generation, electrolyzer capacity, and hydrogen demand [46] - The green hydrogen industry in China is still in its early stages, with operational green hydrogen projects accounting for only 0.1% of the total hydrogen production capacity as of the end of 2023 [35] Green Hydrogen Project Development - Green hydrogen projects in China are primarily located in regions with abundant wind and solar resources, such as North China, Northwest China, and Northeast China, with Inner Mongolia leading in both operational and planned projects [56] - The configuration of renewable energy in green hydrogen projects is shifting from single-source (wind or solar) to hybrid (wind and solar) systems, leveraging the complementary characteristics of wind and solar power to enhance system stability [59] - Green hydrogen projects face challenges in managing the mismatch between renewable energy output and hydrogen demand, requiring both external (grid) and internal (energy storage) flexibility resources to ensure stable hydrogen supply [61] Policy and Economic Analysis - Inner Mongolia has implemented policies to support green hydrogen projects, including the "Implementation Rules for Wind-Solar-Hydrogen Integration Projects," which set limits on grid interaction and require energy storage capabilities [78][80] - The optimal configuration for wind-solar-hydrogen integration projects involves a 3:1 ratio of renewable energy capacity to electrolyzer capacity, ensuring high utilization rates and stable operation of electrolyzers [95] - The levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) for green hydrogen projects is influenced by factors such as grid interaction policies, energy storage configurations, and the ratio of wind to solar power, with a 1:1 wind-to-solar ratio being optimal for cost efficiency and renewable energy utilization [101][113] Grid Interaction and Flexibility - Grid-connected green hydrogen projects tend to sell excess electricity to the grid, with grid interaction policies significantly impacting project design and hydrogen production costs [115] - The proportion of electricity sold to the grid is a critical constraint, with stricter limits leading to reduced renewable energy capacity and increased curtailment rates, thereby raising hydrogen production costs [127][128] - Energy storage, particularly hydrogen storage, is a preferred internal flexibility resource, reducing reliance on the grid and optimizing hydrogen production costs, while electrochemical storage can serve as a local optimization tool in suboptimal wind-solar configurations [113]