2025年铁路公路多式联运行业投资策略：物理网络流量价值与制度创新共振，铁路公路多式联运价值重估

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment strategy for the railway and highway multimodal transport industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities and value reassessment [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of physical network traffic value and institutional innovation in the railway and highway multimodal transport sector, suggesting a revaluation of its worth [1]. - It identifies high dividend assets as a remedy for the "asset scarcity" and "low interest rate era," with infrastructure asset securitization driving non-linear growth in EPS [3]. - The report discusses the significance of PB recovery for provincial highway enterprises amid local government debt management, indicating that these companies may have higher elasticity in market value [3]. Summary by Sections Highways - The optimization of toll road management regulations is expected to reshape the sector's duration and market dynamics [3]. - High dividend assets remain attractive in the current economic climate, with recommendations for specific companies such as招商公路 and others [3]. - The report highlights the importance of provincial highway enterprises in the local government debt management process, suggesting potential for PB recovery [3]. High-Speed Rail - Price regulation and ticket price reforms are anticipated to improve asset profitability, with significant potential for efficiency gains in both traffic and balance sheets [3]. - The report recommends京沪高铁 as a stable growth "white horse" benefiting from ticket price reforms and steady growth in cross-line traffic [3]. Conventional Rail - The report suggests that the shift from road to rail transport will increase volume, while logistics transformation will enhance unit value [3]. - It emphasizes the need for strategic transformation and railway reform to unlock valuation potential, recommending大秦铁路 as a key player [3]. Multimodal Transport Infrastructure - The report identifies the sector as a high-quality track with light asset operations and heavy asset layout, combining high barriers and high elasticity [5]. - It highlights the importance of systematic operational capabilities and the potential for leading companies to benefit from being "standard setters" [5]. - The "Belt and Road" initiative is seen as a significant opportunity for cross-border multimodal transport logistics growth, with嘉友国际 recommended for investment [5]. Market Trends - The report notes that from 2018 to now, the number of vehicles in China has increased from 229 million to 345 million, indicating robust growth in road network traffic [38]. - It mentions that highway construction investment reached 28,240 billion yuan in 2023, with expectations for stabilization and rebound in 2025 due to policy optimization [40]. - The density of the national highway network reached 192 kilometers per 10,000 square kilometers as of 2023, suggesting room for improvement [47]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that toll road companies have faced increasing expenditure, with a significant gap between toll revenue and debt repayment costs [53]. - It highlights the need for regulatory optimization in toll road management to alleviate financial pressures and improve investment returns [59].