Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the securities industry, citing favorable policy catalysts and market recovery as key drivers [6][7] Core Views - The securities industry is expected to benefit from a shift in capital market reforms from the financing side to the investment side, with policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market and accelerating the entry of medium- and long-term funds [2][6] - ETF growth has been rapid, with ETF size reaching nearly 3.7 trillion by November 2024, an 81% increase from the end of 2023 [2][6] - The industry is expected to see a reversal in performance in 2025, with a projected 18% year-on-year increase in net profit and 12% growth in revenue [6][7] Market Performance - The brokerage index outperformed the CSI 300 by 21 percentage points from the beginning of the year to November 2024, with a cumulative increase of 37% [6][17] - Daily stock trading volume in November 2024 reached 1.02 trillion, a 15.3% year-on-year increase [2][6] - The two-finance balance (margin trading and securities lending) reached 1.84 trillion by November 2024, a 12% increase from the end of 2023 [18][21] Policy Catalysts - A series of favorable policies were introduced since late September 2024, including the creation of new monetary policy tools to support stock market stability and the acceleration of medium- and long-term funds entering the market [2][6] - The central bank announced a 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) on September 27, 2024, to boost market liquidity [43][44] Wealth Management - Retail investors are accelerating their entry into the market, with A股新增开户数 (new A-share accounts) in October 2024 reaching 685,000, a 484% year-on-year increase [48][51] - ETF development is seen as a key driver for wealth management, with stock ETF size reaching nearly 2.9 trillion by November 2024, a 97% increase from the end of 2023 [36][37] Investment Banking and PE - M&A and restructuring are expected to be significant growth areas for investment banking, with global M&A transaction volumes exceeding $3 trillion in the first three quarters of 2024 [95][96] - IPO and refinancing activities have slowed, with IPO规模 (IPO size) in November 2024 at 56.8 billion, down 83% year-on-year [30][94] 2025 Outlook - The industry is expected to see a reversal in performance, with a projected 18% year-on-year increase in net profit and 12% growth in revenue [6][7] - Head brokerages are expected to accelerate M&A activities, with examples like the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities providing a model for industry consolidation [123][124] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the securities industry, with a focus on leading brokerages such as东方财富 (East Money), 华泰证券 (Huatai Securities), 中信证券 (CITIC Securities), and 广发证券 (GF Securities) [6][133]
证券行业2025年度投资策略：抓住贝塔，战胜贝塔
国联证券·2024-12-12 10:10