电子：政治局会议强调提振消费 电子行业需求端有望持续改善

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Neutral" [8] Core Insights - The policy focus on boosting consumption is expected to lead to a sustained recovery in industry demand. The government plans to continue consumer subsidies and expand their scope, particularly in sectors like education, healthcare, and culture, where supply gaps remain significant [3][4] - The retail sales of consumer goods in October 2024 increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month acceleration of 1.6 percentage points. The sales of eight major categories of home appliances reached 201.9 billion yuan, indicating a significant policy stimulus effect [3] - The electronics sector, particularly mobile phones and consumer electronics, is expected to benefit from positive signals from government policies and local subsidies aimed at promoting consumption [4][6] - The report anticipates that the "old-for-new" consumption policies will expand further in 2025, with consumer electronics likely to be included in national subsidy programs [4][6] - The report highlights that technological innovation is a crucial driver for new productive forces, with an urgent need for domestic substitution in key areas like semiconductors due to increasing global trade tensions [6][7] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Research - The report emphasizes the importance of a proactive fiscal policy to enhance consumption and investment efficiency, aiming to expand domestic demand comprehensively [3][4] Industry Events - The report notes that various local governments have introduced consumption subsidy policies, which are expected to stimulate demand in the consumer electronics sector [4][6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has called for the development of smart products and the acceleration of upgrades in consumer electronics [4][6] Company Profit Forecasts - The report includes profit forecasts for key companies in the electronics sector, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for several firms, such as: - Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ): EPS expected to rise from 1.29 yuan in 2022 to 1.88 yuan in 2024 [10] - North Huachuang (002371.SZ): EPS expected to increase from 4.45 yuan in 2022 to 10.87 yuan in 2024 [10]