11月美国CPI数据：通胀无碍美联储12月降息，2025年仍有下行空间

Inflation and Monetary Policy - The CPI year-on-year growth rate increased from 2.6% in October to 2.7% in November, aligning with market expectations[3] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.3%, indicating no significant inflationary pressure[3] - A 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is anticipated, with a potential slowdown in the pace of future cuts[3][4] Price Trends - Food prices saw a slight acceleration to approximately 2.4% year-on-year, driven by notable increases in egg and beef prices[4] - Energy prices showed a narrowing decline, with a seasonal adjustment indicating a 0.5% increase month-on-month[4] - Core goods experienced a reduced deflation rate, with a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, primarily due to recovering new and used car prices[4] Future Projections - CPI is expected to rise to around 2.8% in December, with a gradual decline projected in early 2025[3][4] - The average nominal CPI for 2025 is estimated to approach 2.4%, providing ample room for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[4][5] Market Reactions - Market participants have priced in a 98.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with expectations of two additional cuts totaling 50 basis points in 2025[6][19] - The U.S. dollar index briefly declined before rising to 106.6559, reflecting concerns over limited rate cut space and expanding deficits[6][19] Risks - Key risks include potential downturns in the U.S. economy and labor market, unexpected liquidity issues in the banking system, and the impact of tariffs and immigration policies exceeding expectations[44]