2025年海外投资策略：利好政策持续落地，经济底气不断增强

Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience two rounds of short-term rebounds in 2024, driven by policy support and improved market confidence [15][19][23] - The first rebound occurred from January to May 2024, following a series of monetary easing policies and real estate support measures [15][19] - The second rebound took place from mid-September to early October 2024, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and further easing measures from the People's Bank of China [19][25] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is projected to continue its upward trend in 2024, with major indices showing gains of over 15% by December [31][32] - The growth is attributed to strong economic fundamentals, with a 2.8% year-on-year GDP growth in Q3 2024 and a 7.9% increase in S&P 500 EPS from the beginning of the year [31][33] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts is expected to support market stability, with a focus on maintaining a balance between employment and inflation [37][38] Group 3: Japanese Stock Market - The Japanese stock market faced volatility in 2024, particularly due to unexpected interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, leading to significant market fluctuations [48] - Despite these challenges, Japan's economy showed signs of recovery, with a 1.2% year-on-year GDP growth in Q3 2024 and a stable unemployment rate of 2.4% [48] - The potential for further interest rate hikes in 2025 is anticipated as the Bank of Japan aims to normalize its monetary policy, which could influence market performance [48]