Global Connections - Goods trade relationships in 2021 show that nearly 40% of trade in globally concentrated products occurs between geopolitically distant economies, making substitution difficult in the short to medium term [7] - The geopolitical distance of trade among major economies has declined, but fragmentation scenarios remain possible [7] Resources of the World - Only 10% of the technologies needed to meet global emissions reduction commitments by 2050 have been deployed, with 25 physical challenges identified for the remaining 90% [10] - Addressing the most demanding physical challenges, such as managing variable renewables and developing low-emissions industrial processes, could abate about half of energy-related emissions [10] - Key challenges include managing renewables variability, scaling emerging power systems, and securing land for renewables [11][12] Productivity & Prosperity - Productivity in the median economy has increased sixfold over the past 25 years, with 30 emerging economies in the "fast lane" of improvement [18] - Advanced-economy productivity growth has slowed by about one percentage point since the global financial crisis, with investment in digitization, automation, and AI seen as key to future growth [18] - Micro-, small, and medium-size enterprises (MSMEs) account for two-thirds of business employment in advanced economies and almost four-fifths in emerging economies, with significant productivity gaps compared to larger firms [21][22] Accelerating Competitiveness in Europe - Closing Europe's prosperity gap could increase value added by €500 billion to €1 trillion by 2030, requiring investment in areas such as energy, technology, and supply chains [24] - European corporations lag behind US counterparts in scale, performance, and investment, with a widening gap in capital expenditure and R&D spending [25][26][33] Economic Empowerment - Achieving economic empowerment could lift a quarter billion people globally above the empowerment line, with affordability challenges influenced by policy, public services, and private sector actions [28] - Higher incomes and better empowerment outcomes tend to correlate, but the effect plateaus after a certain income level [29][30] Human Potential - Tight labor markets in advanced economies could reduce GDP by 0.5% to 1.5% in 2023 due to unfilled job vacancies, with solutions including flexible work, migration programs, and initiatives to retain seniors and attract women [37][38] - AI adoption could automate up to 30% of current hours worked by 2030, requiring significant occupational transitions and new skills in advanced IT, data analytics, and critical thinking [40][41] Technology & Markets of the Future - 18 potential arenas of competition, including AI software, cybersecurity, and electric vehicles, could generate 48 trillion in revenues and 6 trillion in profits by 2040 [46][47] - These arenas are characterized by cutting-edge technologies, large investments, and growing markets, with the potential to increase their share of global GDP from 4% to 10-16% by 2040 [46][47]
McKinsey Global Institute: 2024 in charts
麦肯锡·2024-12-13 00:08