消费行业2025展望：内需扩容，把握分化与变革机会

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer industry, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand expansion and identifying potential investment opportunities in various segments [1]. Core Insights - The consumer industry in 2024 is characterized by weak overall demand, with essential goods showing resilience while discretionary items are weaker. The report highlights the impact of government policies promoting consumption, particularly in durable goods through trade-in programs [1][10]. - The report anticipates a more significant focus on domestic consumption in 2025, with local governments expected to introduce new consumption-promoting policies tailored to regional conditions [1][52]. - Consumer behavior is shifting towards rational consumption, with a focus on value for money and experiential purchases. This trend is leading to a divergence in performance among international consumer goods companies operating in China [1][59]. - The report discusses the challenges faced by companies looking to expand internationally, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions and trade policy changes, especially with the U.S. [1][65]. Summary by Sections 2024 Review - The overall retail sales growth in 2024 was 3.5%, significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, with essential goods maintaining a growth rate of 9.9% in the first ten months [25][32]. - The performance of listed companies varied, with discretionary sectors like apparel and cosmetics showing weaker results compared to essential goods [42][47]. 2025 Industry Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing consumer preferences, focusing on high-growth segments such as outdoor products and innovative consumer goods [1][12]. - It identifies key characteristics for successful consumer companies, including strong supply chain management, pricing power, and the ability to localize products for international markets [1][86]. Sub-industry Insights - Dairy and Upstream Agriculture: Expected recovery in demand and potential price stabilization in raw milk by late 2025 [94]. - Sportswear: Anticipated growth driven by increased participation in sports and outdoor activities, with a focus on brand recovery potential [101]. - Footwear OEM: Completion of inventory replenishment and emphasis on quality customer structures [106]. - Dining: Increased competition and the need for innovation to maintain market share [120]. - Retail: The sector is undergoing transformation, with a focus on consumer insights and product differentiation [133]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, such as dairy, outdoor products, and trendy consumer goods, while being cautious about export-oriented companies facing geopolitical risks [1][14].