2025年钢铁行业投资策略：行业周期筑底，关注格局优化

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the steel industry, indicating that the current cycle is at a bottom and improvements are expected by 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The steel industry has been affected by declining demand from the real estate sector, but signs of a cyclical bottom are emerging. Three factors are expected to improve the industry landscape in 2025: supply-side adjustments, resilient manufacturing demand, and declining raw material costs [3]. - Supply-side policies, including production limits and cash flow pressures on certain companies, are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated capacity, leading to increased industry concentration [3]. - Manufacturing demand remains resilient, supporting the profitability of plate and special steel segments, while macro policies are expected to stabilize construction demand [3]. - The anticipated decline in raw material prices, particularly iron ore, is expected to restore profitability for steel companies [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply Constraints - Energy consumption requirements are expected to suppress steel supply, with a long-term focus on reducing production capacity in line with carbon neutrality goals [8]. - The government has set targets for energy consumption reduction, which will further reinforce production control expectations [10]. 2. Demand Dynamics - Overall demand for steel is projected to decline, with structural differentiation emerging. The construction sector's demand is expected to stabilize, while manufacturing demand shows resilience [13]. - The report provides detailed forecasts for various sectors, indicating a shift in steel consumption from construction to manufacturing [13]. 3. Cost and Profitability - Cost pressures are expected to ease, leading to improved profit expectations for the steel industry. The anticipated increase in iron ore supply is expected to lower prices, benefiting steel producers [3][12]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued, high-dividend steel companies that primarily serve the manufacturing sector, such as Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing Steel. It also highlights the potential of high-end stainless steel pipes benefiting from the oil and gas sector [4].