彭博：中国誓言明年加大财政支出以刺激消费

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in focus towards stimulating domestic consumption and increasing fiscal spending, suggesting a positive outlook for sectors related to consumer goods and services in 2025 [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The Chinese government plans to increase public borrowing and spending in 2025, prioritizing domestic consumption to address economic weaknesses exacerbated by external trade pressures [1][4]. - There is a commitment to raise the fiscal deficit target, potentially increasing it to 4% to 4.5% of GDP, which marks a significant shift from the previous norm of around 3% [6][10]. - The report highlights a growing recognition of the need to support consumer spending, particularly among low- and middle-income groups, through targeted subsidies and pension increases [5][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Policy Focus - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to boost consumption and domestic demand as a primary task, marking a notable change in policy direction [1][9]. - The government is expected to implement measures to enhance consumer confidence and spending, including potential cash subsidies and tax incentives for families [4][7]. Fiscal Measures - Plans to issue more long-term special government bonds to subsidize consumer purchases and increase local government special bonds for infrastructure investment were discussed [7][10]. - The report suggests that the government will likely introduce specific measures to support consumption, with major cities already launching local subsidy programs [4][5]. Monetary Policy - The report indicates that the central bank may lower interest rates and reserve requirements to stimulate economic activity, with expectations of a rate cut of at least 40 basis points by the end of 2025 [11][13]. - The language used in the conference reflects a sense of urgency to restore confidence in the economy, with a focus on stabilizing the currency while easing monetary policy [10][11].