中央经济工作会议解读：政策刺激继续，将扩大内需摆在更重要位置

Economic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12, 2023, emphasized the need for continued economic stimulus and prioritizing domestic demand expansion for 2025[1] - The economic growth target for 2025 is likely to be set at 5% to demonstrate a commitment to stable growth[1] - The meeting highlighted the challenges faced by the economy, including insufficient domestic demand and pressures on employment and income growth[1] Fiscal Policy - The conference reiterated the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy, with plans to increase the deficit ratio and the issuance of special bonds[1] - The projected budget deficit ratio for next year is maintained at 3.5%-4.0%, with an expected new special bond issuance of 4.2-4.5 trillion yuan[1] - An additional 8,000 billion yuan in special bonds is anticipated to support the acquisition of existing land and properties from real estate companies[1] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy stance has shifted to "moderately loose," with expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions exceeding previous forecasts of 20-30 basis points and 50-100 basis points, respectively[2] - The central bank is expected to utilize structural tools to support key industries, particularly through a special relending program for acquiring existing land, with an initial scale of around 300 billion yuan[2] Real Estate Policy - The meeting emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, with ongoing efforts to promote sales and support the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing[3] - The government plans to facilitate the disposal of existing properties and land, with a focus on utilizing special bonds and relending to support these initiatives[3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Expanding domestic demand is identified as a top priority for the coming year, with specific actions to boost consumption, including a special action plan for consumption[4] - Measures to increase disposable income for low- and middle-income groups are expected, including raising basic pensions and healthcare subsidies[4]