24年中央经济工作会议对市场的启示：政策进，股市上行

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference indicates a positive tone, with expectations for coordinated monetary, fiscal, real estate, and capital market policies to stimulate economic recovery[2] - The conference emphasizes boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as top priorities, highlighting a shift in focus towards consumer-driven growth[21] - The fiscal policy is set to be more proactive, with potential increases in the fiscal deficit target to 3.5-4.0% and continued issuance of special bonds to support infrastructure and consumption[11] Group 2: Market Outlook - The stock market is expected to transition into a new phase driven by fundamentals, supported by the implementation of incremental policies[17] - Key economic indicators show improvement, with November manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, PPI turning positive for the first time since June, and a 5.4% year-on-year increase in exports[17] - The A-share net profit growth is projected to rise to 5-10% in 2025, indicating a shift from asset revaluation to fundamental-driven growth[17] Group 3: Sector Focus - Mid-to-high-end manufacturing and technology sectors are identified as mid-term investment themes, with strong fundamentals and supportive policies expected to drive growth[21] - The global humanoid robot market is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 50% from 2024 to 2028, indicating significant opportunities in technology manufacturing[26] - Consumer goods sectors are also highlighted for strategic focus, with policies aimed at boosting consumption likely to enhance the performance of retail and service industries[27]