2024年12月中央经济工作会议点评：大会延续积极表态，债市谨慎参与

Economic Overview - The central economic work conference held on December 11-12, 2024, indicated a stable economic operation with a projected GDP growth rate of 5% for the year[12] - Despite facing challenges, the long-term positive trend of the economy remains unchanged, with a focus on transforming positive factors into developmental achievements[12] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, with the deficit rate projected to increase to 3.5%-4% in 2025, and the issuance of special bonds anticipated to reach approximately 4.5 trillion yuan[17] - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to be around 2 trillion yuan, with total fiscal expansion estimated to be around 12 trillion yuan[17] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to be "moderately loose," with expectations for a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by over 150 basis points and interest rate cuts of 40-60 basis points[21] - The central bank is expected to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy tools to support economic stability and financial stability[21] Consumption and Domestic Demand - Promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand are key focuses for economic growth in 2025, with initiatives to stimulate consumer spending expected to continue[24] - The government plans to implement special actions to boost consumption, with an estimated 2 billion yuan allocated for consumer subsidies in 2025[26] Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is prioritized to lead the development of new productive forces, with a focus on building a modern industrial system and fostering future industries[28] - Manufacturing investment is expected to maintain a high growth rate of around 9% in 2025, driven by policy support for high-tech transformation[29] Real Estate and Stock Market Stability - The government aims to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, with policies to support the recovery of the real estate market and mitigate risks[33] - The real estate market is expected to see a gradual recovery, with improved sales data and a focus on new development models[39] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is anticipated to experience limited immediate impact from the economic work conference, with yields expected to fluctuate around 1.85%[40] - Long-term bond yields are projected to remain in the range of 1.7%-2.2%, with increased volatility expected due to various economic factors[45] Risk Factors - Potential risks include an unexpected rebound in the economic fundamentals, the possibility of monetary easing benefits being fully realized, and fiscal measures falling short of expectations[46]