2025年证券行业投资策略：业绩预期上修，行业格局重塑

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, indicating that the sector has outperformed the market by nearly 20 percentage points year-to-date, driven by favorable policies and strong earnings performance [3][11]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to see a significant recovery in performance, with quarterly earnings showing strong upward momentum. The report highlights that the policies implemented since late September have exceeded expectations, contributing to a robust recovery in the brokerage sector's fundamentals [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of mergers and acquisitions as a key investment theme, with ongoing reforms in the capital market expected to benefit leading brokerage firms [3][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of Performance - Since late September, the brokerage sector has shown a strong recovery, with quarterly earnings consistently exceeding expectations. The net profit for the second quarter of 2024 decreased by 11% year-on-year but increased by 18% quarter-on-quarter, while the third quarter saw a year-on-year increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14% [3][11]. - The report notes that the brokerage sector's performance has been bolstered by favorable policies and a significant increase in trading volumes driven by retail investors [3][4]. 2. Outlook on Market Structure - The report outlines four key investment strategies in light of ongoing mergers and acquisitions within the brokerage sector, emphasizing the need to focus on leading firms that are likely to benefit from capital market reforms [3][5]. - The report also highlights the expected improvement in investment banking activities, with a gradual normalization of IPOs and an increase in refinancing activities [4][5]. 3. Business Outlook - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from increased trading activity and a growing number of new accounts, with a focus on enhancing wealth management services and understanding client needs [4][5]. - The report suggests that the asset management segment will see significant growth, particularly in ETFs, as firms adapt to changing market conditions [4][5]. 4. Earnings Outlook - The report projects a year-on-year earnings growth of 2% for 2024 and 15% for 2025, indicating a positive trend in the brokerage sector's financial performance [3][5].