2025年食品饮料行业投资策略：不破不立

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "standard allocation" for the food and beverage sector in 2025, with a balanced allocation between liquor and food products, emphasizing an overweight position in dairy products [3][32]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.03% in 2024, with an excess return of -16.13%, ranking 29th among the Shenwan first-level sub-industries [3][7]. - A significant policy shift is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2024, focusing on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, which is expected to enhance the sector's long-term opportunities [3][32]. - The report indicates that the sector's performance in early 2025 will be driven by policy and expectations, while the second half will depend on fundamental performance and earnings [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Sector Review - The food and beverage sector's performance was poor, with three out of four years from 2021 to 2024 ranking in the bottom tier [3][7]. - The sector's absolute returns were negative, with half of the months in 2024 showing negative returns [11][19]. 2. Liquor Sector Investment Strategy - The liquor industry faces significant demand pressure, with expectations of a challenging first quarter in 2025 [4][32]. - Long-term, if the economy improves in 2025, the liquor sector may see a bottoming out of its fundamentals, with key recommendations including Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, and Kweichow Moutai [4][32]. 3. Consumer Goods Sector Investment Strategy - The consumer goods sector is expected to stabilize, with opportunities arising from new retail formats and consumer trends focused on health and convenience [4][32]. - Key recommendations include Yili, Qingdao Beer, and Mengniu Dairy, among others [4][32].