MNSO(MNSO) 国元国际控股·2024-12-13 10:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO, with a target price of 24.75 [1][2][17]. Core Insights - MINISO's overseas direct sales growth has exceeded expectations, with Q3 FY24 revenue increasing by 19% year-on-year to 45.2 billion RMB, driven by a 40% increase in overseas revenue [2][8]. - The gross margin for Q3 FY24 reached a historical high of 44.9%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the increased contribution from overseas direct sales [2][12]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue and adjusted net profit of 48.5 billion RMB and 7.5 billion RMB, respectively, in Q4 FY24 [17]. Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Business Performance - Domestic revenue for Q3 FY24 grew by 9% to 27.1 billion RMB, with MINISO's offline revenue increasing by 4% to 22.3 billion RMB [2][7]. - The number of domestic MINISO stores increased by 12% year-on-year to 4,520, with a same-store sales growth rate showing a slight decline [7][8]. Overseas Business Performance - Overseas revenue for Q3 FY24 reached 18.1 billion RMB, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, with same-store sales growth in direct and agency markets showing high single-digit growth [2][8]. - The contribution of overseas revenue to total revenue increased from 32% last year to 37% this year, indicating successful global expansion [12][17]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY24E to FY26E are 171.2 billion RMB, 208.2 billion RMB, and 251.1 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 23.7%, 21.6%, and 20.6%, respectively [2][17]. - Adjusted net profit projections for the same period are 28.4 billion RMB, 34.6 billion RMB, and 42.2 billion RMB, with growth rates of 21.6%, 22.0%, and 21.7% [17].