房地产行业2025年投资策略：稳价为纲，筑底在望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The key issue is the residents' balance sheet, with housing prices being a crucial determining factor. Since 2021, the national second-hand housing prices have dropped by 31%, leading to a significant decline in the value of existing housing stock [3][75] - The current housing market shows signs of demand support and supply constraints, indicating a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics, especially in first and second-tier cities [4][5] - The outlook for the industry suggests a focus on stabilizing prices and a bottoming out, with total market activity expected to remain weak but with structural resilience in certain segments [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Core Issues - The residents' balance sheet is critical, and housing prices are a significant factor influencing it. The estimated decline in housing prices has led to a substantial drop in the value of existing housing stock, which is projected to reach 285 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, a 23% decrease from the peak in 2021 [3][75] 2. Market Status - The real estate market has undergone deep adjustments since 2021, with a pessimistic outlook. However, there are emerging positive factors, such as an increase in the proportion of first-time buyers in the transaction structure. The total housing transaction volume is expected to decline to 1.38 billion square meters in 2024, below the estimated mid-term demand range [4] 3. Policy Outlook - The focus of policies has shifted towards stabilizing housing prices and repairing residents' balance sheets. Recent policy measures have shown effectiveness, with several cities reporting stabilization in housing prices. Future policies are expected to include measures such as lowering mortgage rates and optimizing purchase restrictions [5][6] 4. Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to stabilize, with total activity remaining weak but structural resilience in first and second-tier cities. The report predicts a decline in sales area by 4.5%, sales revenue by 6.4%, and investment by 9.9% in 2025 [5][6] 5. Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product capabilities and those that are undervalued. Specific companies highlighted include Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments, among others [6]