2025年建筑装饰投资策略：基建投资温和复苏，布局顺周期弹性赛道

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the infrastructure sector, expecting a moderate recovery in 2025 with a projected increase of 9.8% in broad infrastructure investment and 5.2% in narrow infrastructure investment [3][46][48]. Core Insights - The central policy shift emphasizes development as a priority, with government investment playing a crucial role. Local governments are expected to improve their investment willingness and capacity, leading to a moderate recovery in infrastructure investment in 2025 [3][48]. - The report highlights three elastic growth tracks: national energy security, stimulating domestic demand, and the Belt and Road Initiative. Key sectors to focus on include coal chemical, steel structures, and international expansion of construction enterprises [3][53]. - Debt resolution and market value management are expected to drive the valuation recovery of undervalued state-owned enterprises. The report notes that state-owned enterprises maintain stable profit and dividend rates, with some local state-owned enterprises having dividend rates exceeding 50% [3][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Local Government Investment Willingness and Capacity Recovery - The report suggests that local government investment willingness is becoming more positive due to the central policy shift, and their investment capacity is expected to improve with the implementation of debt resolution policies [7][12][16]. 2. Focus on Elastic Growth Directions for 2025 - The report identifies key areas for investment in 2025, including coal chemical investments driven by national energy security, a rebound in manufacturing investment, and the growing trend of construction enterprises expanding internationally [3][53][57]. 3. Valuation Recovery of State-Owned Enterprises - The report discusses how debt resolution policies and market value management will facilitate the valuation recovery of undervalued state-owned enterprises, with specific recommendations for companies in the coal chemical and steel structure sectors [3][46][48]. 4. Investment Analysis Opinion - The report concludes that the infrastructure sector is poised for a moderate recovery in 2025, with significant investment opportunities in cyclical elastic sectors and undervalued state-owned enterprises likely to benefit from policy-driven valuation recovery [3][46][48].