Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Sinotruk (3808 HK) with a target price of HKD 27.60 [4][6] Core Views - Sinotruk is a leading heavy-duty truck manufacturer in China with a 24.9% market share in 2023 [1] - The company benefits from dual growth drivers: domestic demand recovery and strong export performance [1][3] - Sinotruk's export sales accounted for 57.3% of total heavy truck sales in 2023, up from 11.1% in 2020 [3] - The company's revenue grew 43.9% YoY to RMB 85.49 billion in 2023, with net profit surging 217.9% to RMB 5.32 billion [1] Industry Outlook - The heavy truck industry is in the early stages of recovery, supported by logistics demand and replacement policies [2][4] - Natural gas heavy trucks are gaining popularity due to widening fuel price differentials, with penetration reaching 24.8% in 2023 [27] - The "One Belt, One Road" initiative continues to drive export growth, with Sinotruk leading in overseas sales [3][31] Company Performance - Sinotruk sold 227,000 heavy trucks in 2023 (42.7% domestic, 57.3% export) and 130,000 light trucks [1] - The company's gross margin stood at 16.7% in 2023, with heavy trucks contributing 87.5% of total revenue [1] - Sinotruk maintains a 50% dividend payout ratio, offering an attractive dividend yield of 5-6% [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecast to grow 13.0% to RMB 96.59 billion in 2024 and 9.6% to RMB 105.91 billion in 2025 [4][47] - Net profit is expected to increase 14.1% to RMB 6.07 billion in 2024 and another 14.1% to RMB 6.93 billion in 2025 [4][48] - The company is valued at 10x 2024 P/E, in line with industry peers [52] Strategic Advantages - Sinotruk has a strong partnership with MAN and Weichai Power, enhancing its technological capabilities [29][43] - The company has established a comprehensive overseas network, covering over 110 countries and regions [33] - Sinotruk's product portfolio is being upgraded, with new high-end models like SITRAK and Yellow River boosting average selling prices [46][47]
中国重汽：重卡龙头，海内外双线增长