美国CPI通胀数据点评（2024年11月）：小幅反弹

Overview - The November 2024 U.S. CPI inflation data showed a slight rebound, with year-on-year growth increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%, matching market expectations[7] - Core CPI year-on-year growth remained stable at 3.3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, also in line with market forecasts[7] Service Inflation - Housing service inflation has softened, with the housing service CPI decreasing by 0.2 percentage points to 4.7% in November[9] - Major rent components, such as Rent of Primary Residence (RPR) and Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER), saw year-on-year growth drop to 4.4% and 4.9%, respectively[9] - Non-housing service inflation also declined by 0.3 percentage points to 4.3%, although strong consumer demand continues to support high prices in some service sectors[11] Commodity Deflation - Core commodity CPI year-on-year growth improved by 0.4 percentage points to -0.6%, indicating a narrowing of deflationary pressures[12] - Gasoline CPI year-on-year growth rebounded by 4.1 percentage points to -8.4%, while furniture prices improved by 1.2 percentage points to -1.0%[12] - Q3 U.S. commodity consumption saw a significant annualized growth rate of 6.0%, surpassing service consumption growth of 2.6%[12] Market Reactions - The market is slightly leaning towards a hawkish stance, with a 98% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December[13] - U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 1 basis point to 4.15% and the 10-year yield rising by 5 basis points to 4.27%[13] Future Outlook - The inflation data aligns with expectations, suggesting that the Fed is likely to proceed with a 25 basis point rate cut in December[16] - Housing service inflation is expected to drive total inflation lower, with the possibility of 1-2 additional rate cuts in early 2025[16] - Economic conditions do not support a stable return to below 2% inflation, indicating that the rate cut cycle may end by mid-2025[16]