2025年度投资策略报告：分蛋糕与做蛋糕

Core Views - Fiscal policy should focus on improving household cash flow to stimulate demand, with direct fiscal support to households benefiting consumption and internet platforms [5] - Technological advancements in AI, IoT, robotics, and clean tech are key drivers of long-term productivity growth without the need for policy intervention [5] - Earnings growth for the A-share market is expected to be modest, with opportunities in sectors like electronics, computers, and social services, while real estate and power equipment may see a turnaround [5] Asset Allocation - Equities: A-shares will benefit from policy expectations, with real estate and tech sectors playing key roles. US equities remain in a long-term bull market, though valuation adjustments may occur [10] - Bonds: OMO rates are expected to drop by at least 40BP in 2025, with 1Y, 10Y, and 30Y rates projected at 1%, 1.6%, and 1.8% respectively [11] - Commodities: Oil prices may face downward pressure due to policies supporting production and inflation control, with short-term trading volatility influenced by sanctions [11] - Currencies: The USD is expected to remain strong against the EUR and JPY due to weaker fundamentals in Europe and Japan [11] Fiscal Policy and Economic Stimulus - Land finance, which has been a major source of local government revenue, is reaching its limits as household leverage has peaked, leading to a decline in consumption potential [17][21] - Fiscal policy should prioritize reducing household debt and improving cash flow to break the negative feedback loop between households and enterprises [27][31] - Direct fiscal support to households, such as subsidies and tax cuts, is more effective than investments in infrastructure or debt resolution, which may exacerbate economic imbalances [35][44] Productivity and Growth - Total factor productivity (TFP) is the key to sustainable economic growth, with China's TFP peaking in 2011 and foreign investment slowing as a result [52][59] - Advanced technologies like AI, semiconductors, IoT, and clean tech are critical for boosting productivity and achieving self-reliance in key industries [59] - Labor and capital inputs are becoming less effective due to aging populations and declining investment efficiency in real estate and infrastructure [75][82][87] Valuation and Market Trends - The A-share market's risk premium (ERP) is near one standard deviation, indicating high investment value [106] - Small-cap and consumer sectors are undervalued, with small-cap stocks expected to outperform due to emerging industries and high trading volumes [116][122] - Earnings growth for the A-share market is expected to be weak, with structural opportunities in sectors like electronics, computers, and social services [128][139] Liquidity and Market Participants - Macro liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, with domestic and global interest rates declining [142] - Public funds and ETFs will be major sources of incremental capital, while northbound capital inflows may remain weak [150][153] - Retail investors are actively entering the market, with new A-share accounts nearing historical highs [184] - Insurance funds are increasing their equity allocations, while private equity funds remain underweight but are expected to increase positions [158][168]