电力设备及新能源：整治“内卷式”竞争，新能源新动能迈向新周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [14]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for coordinated development of supply and demand, fostering new momentum while updating old productivity. It highlights the importance of technological innovation in leading the development of new productivity [4]. - The report anticipates a new cycle for the new energy industry, driven by favorable policies and technological advancements, despite challenges such as slowing demand and increasing international trade barriers [4][10]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1) Improvement in supply-demand cycles, focusing on leading companies; 2) Acceleration of new technology commercialization; 3) Opportunities in global markets [14]. Summary by Sections Wind Power - Long-term demand for wind power remains strong, with expectations for installed capacity to reach 90-100 GW for onshore and 15-18 GW for offshore by 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 18.8% and 83.3% respectively [4]. - The report notes a rational return of pricing in the wind power sector, with a focus on technological upgrades and equipment renewal contributing to new growth points [4]. Lithium Batteries - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to exceed expectations, driven by policies aimed at boosting consumption and the growth of the new energy vehicle market, which saw a 30% increase in sales [4][10]. - The report highlights the stimulating effects of low-altitude economy, digital economy, and solid-state batteries on lithium battery demand [10]. Energy Storage - The report identifies energy storage as a high-growth segment, with global installed capacity projected to grow from 41 GW in 2023 to 210 GW by 2030, reflecting a strong CAGR of approximately 37% [10]. - The potential for long-duration and grid-type energy storage is emphasized, with increasing overseas demand creating opportunities for domestic companies [10]. Photovoltaics - The report indicates that the photovoltaic industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with a focus on self-discipline among enterprises to prevent "involution" and promote effective capacity control [10]. - It anticipates a recovery in the photovoltaic sector by the second half of 2025, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and industry consensus [10]. Power Grid - The report projects that investment in the power grid will exceed 650 billion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate of over 10%, driven by the need for equipment updates and the construction of high-voltage transmission lines [11]. - The emphasis on smart grid upgrades and the integration of renewable energy sources is expected to enhance the overall efficiency and reliability of the power grid [11].