宏观动态点评：更加积极有为的宏观政策可期

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12, 2024, emphasized the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies[3] - Expected measures include increasing the fiscal deficit, issuing long-term special bonds, and enhancing local government bond issuance to stabilize growth[3] - Monetary policy is anticipated to be moderately relaxed, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions[3] Group 2: Consumption and Investment Strategies - Boosting domestic consumption and improving investment efficiency are prioritized, especially in light of anticipated international uncertainties post-2025[4] - Special actions to stimulate consumption will focus on low- and middle-income groups, as they typically have a higher marginal propensity to consume[4] - Increased support for key projects and a moderate rise in central budget investments are expected to foster a virtuous cycle between investment and consumption[4] Group 3: Innovation and Financial Support - Development of new productive forces through technological innovation is crucial for cultivating new economic momentum[4] - The integration of digital and green technologies into traditional industries is a key strategy for enhancing productivity[4] - A multi-tiered financial service system is needed to guide capital towards sectors that support the development of new productive forces[4] Group 4: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include changes in monetary policies of developed economies and increased volatility in the global economy[5]