2025年银行业投资策略：以稳制胜、拨备择优，聚焦政策风口的蓄势银行

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector for 2025, emphasizing its high Sharpe ratio and potential for valuation recovery driven by policy tailwinds and economic stabilization [3][6] Core Views - Stability is the main theme for the banking sector in 2025, with economic recovery expected to drive growth while downside risks are limited [3] - Asset quality remains robust, with provisions being a key factor in stock selection, especially for banks with low non-performing loans (NPLs) and high provision coverage ratios [3] - Net interest margins (NIM) are expected to be a critical variable in the second half of 2025, with potential improvement in deposit costs and credit resource allocation [3] - The banking sector is seen as a low-volatility, high-dividend asset, offering both defensive and cyclical opportunities, particularly in the post-recovery phase [3][6] Key Highlights by Section 1. New Perception: Low-Volatility Dividend, Stable Absolute Returns - The banking sector has been undervalued for six consecutive years, with PB ratios hitting a low of 0.42x in 2023, reflecting concerns over economic slowdown and regulatory pressures [7][8] - The introduction of market value management regulations is expected to drive valuation recovery, particularly for state-owned banks, which account for 84% of total assets among listed central enterprises [13][14] - High and stable dividend payouts by listed banks, with an average dividend yield of 4.94%, make them attractive to long-term investors [16][17] 2. Fundamental Outlook: Provisions and NIM - Provisions are a key variable for 2025, with banks expected to maintain stable NPL absorption rates of 0.5%-0.6% annually without tapping into existing provisions [3] - NIM is projected to decline by 14bps to 1.46% in 2025, with potential stabilization in 2026, driven by loan repricing, debt restructuring, and deposit cost improvements [3] - Regional banks with lower funding costs and stronger corporate lending capabilities are expected to outperform in NIM performance [3] 3. Banking Performance: Post-Cycle Recovery - The banking sector's performance is expected to lag economic recovery, with valuation recovery driven by improved economic expectations and corporate earnings [3] - Key indicators to watch include PMI and PPI trends, with sustained PMI expansion and PPI recovery likely to trigger a revaluation of bank stocks [3] 4. Investment Analysis: Focus on High-Provision Banks - The report recommends focusing on regional banks with strong provisions and policy tailwinds, such as Bank of Suzhou, Bank of Chongqing, and Ruifeng Bank [3][6] - Banks like Changshu Bank, Sunong Bank, and Chengdu Bank are also highlighted for their high dividend yields and growth potential [3] 5. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The banking sector's asset quality is underpinned by stringent NPL recognition and proactive risk management, with NPL ratios declining to 1.25% in 2024 [25][26] - The real estate sector, while still a risk, is no longer the primary drag on bank valuations, with NPL ratios for real estate loans stabilizing and even declining in some banks [68][71] - The report estimates that the cumulative risk exposure from real estate loans is around 11%-14%, with provisions sufficient to cover potential NPL increases [76][77] 6. Capital and Profitability - Banks are expected to maintain stable profitability despite capital constraints, with ROE projected at 9.5% in 2024 and core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratios declining gradually [63][64] - The sector's ability to absorb NPLs without significant profit volatility is supported by robust provision coverage, which stands at 244% as of 3Q24 [26][63]