2024年11月金融数据解读：如何理解M1与M2反向

Group 1: Monetary Supply and Loans - In November, M1 decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 6.1%[4] - M2 increased by 7.1% year-on-year, slightly down from 7.5% in the previous month[4] - New loans in November amounted to 580 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1 trillion RMB[4] - Private sector deposits increased by 1.7 trillion RMB, but this was approximately 1 trillion RMB less than the same month last year[25] Group 2: Social Financing and Credit - New social financing in November was 2.34 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion RMB[4] - The effective social financing growth rate (including medium- and long-term loans, entrusted loans, trust loans, and direct financing) remained stable[27] - The decline in credit was primarily due to a reduction in loans to the real economy, which decreased by 589.7 billion RMB year-on-year[27] - Government financing increased by 1.31 trillion RMB, up 158.9 billion RMB year-on-year, providing significant support to social financing[49] Group 3: Factors Affecting M2 Growth - M2 growth was negatively impacted by local government debt, bad asset disposal, and disturbances in non-bank deposits, which collectively reduced M2 growth by 0.25 percentage points[25] - Non-bank deposits increased by 180 billion RMB in November, compared to 1.57 trillion RMB in the same month last year, indicating a high historical base[25] - The increase in private sector deposits included 790 billion RMB from households, 740 billion RMB from enterprises, and 180 billion RMB from non-bank financial institutions, with year-on-year changes of -118.9 billion RMB, +491.3 billion RMB, and -1.39 trillion RMB respectively[25]