新兴市场弹性大，重视并购重组等主线

Group 1: Market Overview - The North Exchange market has seen liquidity and valuation recovery since the "9.24" policy, with significant emotional leadership effects observed[3] - The first phase of policy implementation has been cautious regarding profitability improvements, with expectations for mergers and acquisitions to become the main trading theme in 2025[3] - The small-cap growth style is expected to be a primary theme in 2024 due to a dual easing environment, with the Fed's rate cuts contributing to global liquidity[18] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Four key investment themes are recommended: 1) Mergers and acquisitions, especially projects with high landing probabilities, 2) Market value management focusing on long-term undervalued stocks, 3) Share buybacks and dividends, 4) High-quality assets with unique characteristics[3] - The expected new share issuance return for 2025 is estimated at 9% under neutral assumptions, suggesting a positive outlook for new investments[6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - A-share (non-financial) revenue has turned negative for the first time in five years, with a year-on-year decline of 5.8% for the North Exchange in 2024[35] - The North Exchange's profit growth remains under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 22.1% in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024[35] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The North Exchange is currently in a destocking and production reduction phase, with weak replenishment intentions observed[37] - The overall supply changes in the North Exchange are similar to the broader A-share market, both undergoing a destocking cycle, but with a relatively smaller reduction in production compared to other segments[37]