2025年电子行业投资策略：直面科技封锁，AI终端涌现

Investment Rating - The report provides an optimistic outlook for the electronic industry, particularly in consumer electronics and AI terminals, indicating a positive investment strategy for 2025. Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of consumer subsidies in various regions, which are expected to boost demand for electronic products, particularly smartphones and tablets, leading to a favorable market environment by the end of 2024 [3][8]. - The integration of AI capabilities into Apple's ecosystem is emphasized, with the upcoming iPhone 16 series expected to support advanced AI functionalities, positioning Apple as a leader in the AI terminal market [3][31]. - The report discusses the dual development of large models and terminal hardware, indicating a trend where smartphone and PC manufacturers are collaborating with AI firms to create innovative products [4][38]. - Progress in domestic semiconductor manufacturing, particularly in lithography equipment, is noted as a significant step towards achieving self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry [4][59]. Summary by Sections 1. AI Terminals: From Exploration to Competition - The global smartphone market has shown continuous growth for five consecutive quarters, with a projected increase in shipments due to new product launches and recovering demand [8]. - Consumer subsidies are expanding to include smartphones and tablets, enhancing their status as high-quality consumer goods [8]. 2. Semiconductor: Facing Technological Blockades - The report outlines advancements in domestic lithography machines, with the first production of KrF and ArF lithography machines completed, boosting confidence in semiconductor self-sufficiency [4][59]. - The report predicts that the capacity share of mature processes (greater than 28nm) in mainland China will increase from 31% in 2023 to 47% by 2027 [4][72]. 3. Industry Chain Targets - Key companies identified for investment opportunities include Xiaomi Group, STMicroelectronics, and various semiconductor equipment manufacturers, reflecting the report's focus on consumer subsidies and emerging AI terminals [5][54].