策略周报：会议定调积极，跨年行情可期

Group 1 - The report indicates a positive outlook for the market, suggesting that a year-end rally is expected following the recent Central Economic Work Conference, which has set a constructive tone for economic policies [2][16]. - In November, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.2%, raising the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [2][15]. - Domestic CPI growth in November fell to 0.2% from 0.3%, below the market expectation of 0.5%, primarily due to a slowdown in food price increases, while PPI growth rose to -2.5%, indicating a recovery in domestic supply [2][15]. Group 2 - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market from December 9 to December 13 was 1,932.944 billion yuan, an increase of 208.382 billion yuan from the previous week, reflecting improved market sentiment [16][35]. - The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 11 to 12 continued the positive tone set by previous meetings, indicating a deepening understanding of economic work and targeted measures for the current economic situation [16][15]. - The report highlights that the consumer sector, particularly through initiatives like trade-ins and expanded service consumption, is expected to benefit sectors such as consumer electronics, new consumption, media games, dining, tourism, and elderly care [16][15]. Group 3 - The report notes that the bond market is likely to maintain a bullish trend over the next quarter, suggesting favorable conditions for fixed-income investments [16]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a rotation between technology sectors, such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and chips, and consumer sectors, indicating a dynamic market environment [16][15]. - The report tracks the A-share market's risk premium and equity-debt ratio, noting that the risk premium remains stable while the equity-debt ratio has improved due to a decline in the ten-year government bond yield [25][30].