25年策略展望系列3：贸易摩擦中“抢出口”如何演绎？

Core Insights - The report suggests that if Trump is re-elected as President of the United States, the foreign trade environment for China may face disturbances, potentially leading to a phenomenon of "export grabbing" similar to that observed during the 2018-2019 US-China trade tensions [2][3] - Historical data indicates that after the imposition of tariff threats, there was a notable increase in export activities, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on exports to the US, such as automotive and machinery [2][4] - Currently, the phenomenon of export grabbing is not yet evident, but it may gradually emerge once the specific goods affected by tariffs are clarified, especially in sectors like machinery and computers that have a high dependency on the US market [2][5] Trade Tensions Review - The report reviews the 2018-2019 US-China trade tensions, highlighting that during Trump's previous term, there was a high degree of policy commitment in trade areas, and he has indicated intentions to impose further tariffs on Chinese imports if re-elected [3] - The report notes that over half of the export goods were affected during the trade tensions, with significant impacts observed following the announcement of tariff lists [3] Export Grabbing Dynamics - The process of imposing tariffs involves several stages, including investigation, threats, publication of tariff lists, and the effective date of tariffs, with export grabbing becoming more pronounced after the clear announcement of tariff threats [4] - Initial phases of the trade tensions saw a gradual increase in imports from China to the US, but this was likely influenced by uncertainties regarding the extent of tariff imposition [4] Sector-Specific Export Trends - Analysis of the export grabbing phenomenon indicates that sectors such as automotive, electronics, and machinery exhibit more significant export increases compared to lighter industries like textiles and apparel, due to their higher dependency on the US market [5] - The report anticipates that as the timeline for tariff implementation becomes clearer, sectors with high reliance on US exports, particularly machinery and computers, may experience more pronounced export grabbing [5]