US Softlines Retail_UBS Evidence Lab inside_ China Online Sales Growth Rates Still Choppy (1)

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies within the US Softlines Retail sector, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [351][356][361]. Core Insights - The growth rate of US brands' sales in China has decelerated significantly, with the Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) index for 27 US Softlines brands decreasing by 24% year-over-year in November, marking a deceleration of approximately 17,700 basis points month-over-month [10][32]. - Only 6 out of the 27 brands in the index experienced year-over-year GMV growth, highlighting the challenging market conditions [10][32]. - Crocs and Canada Goose showed the best growth rates in November, with year-over-year increases of 84% and 55% respectively, while brands like Nike and Skechers faced substantial declines of 63% and 66% [10][11][12][55]. Summary by Sections China Online Market Monitor - The UBS Evidence Lab's China Online Market Monitor tracks the online performance of major consumer brands, focusing on GMV, sales volume, and average selling prices on platforms like Tmall and Taobao [13][364]. Softlines Industry Gross Merchandise Value Index - The Softlines Industry GMV index increased by 12% on a two-year basis, despite a month-over-month deceleration [44][46]. - The index's year-over-year change reflects a significant decline, indicating a challenging environment for softlines retailers [32][44]. Company Leaderboards - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various companies, with Crocs and Salomon leading in growth on a rolling three-month, two-year basis, showing increases of 202% and 108% respectively [11][55]. - Other notable performers include Lululemon and Canada Goose, with growth rates of 94% and 93% [11][55]. Time Series Data - The report includes time series data for individual companies, illustrating trends in GMV and sales performance over time [10][11][12][55]. Valuation and Financial Metrics - The report presents a valuation table for the companies covered, detailing market capitalization, price targets, and expected sales growth rates [351][356][361]. - Key financial metrics such as return on equity (ROE), profit margins, and debt ratios are also analyzed to assess the financial health of the companies [356][361]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the report suggests a cautious optimism for select companies within the US Softlines Retail sector, despite the broader challenges faced in the market [351][356][361].