地产及物管行业周报：中央连续强调稳定楼市股市，货币政策从稳健转向适度宽松

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the core issue in the real estate market is not insufficient demand but rather the weakening of household balance sheets. The recent policy statements indicate a clear direction towards repairing these balance sheets, suggesting a more effective policy approach than in the past [1][35]. - The report anticipates that the real estate sector is likely to stabilize, with mid-term demand supported while short-term supply constraints remain. It predicts a weak overall market in the coming year but expects strong elasticity in certain segments, particularly in first- and second-tier cities [1][35]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In the week of December 7-13, 2024, 34 key cities saw new home sales totaling 395,200 square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 1%. First- and second-tier cities experienced a 5% decline, while third- and fourth-tier cities saw a 60% increase [4][8]. - Cumulatively, December's new home sales in 34 cities increased by 19% year-on-year, with first- and second-tier cities up 21% and third- and fourth-tier cities up 4% [8][11]. - The inventory situation shows that 15 cities had a total of 9,470,000 square meters available for sale, remaining stable week-on-week, with a three-month moving average of 16.8 months for inventory turnover, down 0.8 months [24][30]. Policy and News Tracking - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro policies to stabilize the real estate market and promote recovery. It highlighted the need to release housing demand potential and manage land supply effectively [35][36]. - Specific local policies include new regulations in Hangzhou to enhance the calculation of usable area for new residential land, and measures in Guangxi to support stable development in the real estate market [36][37]. Company Dynamics - Sales figures for November show significant declines for several major companies: Longfor Group at 8.5 billion yuan (-19%), China Resources Land at 25.8 billion yuan (+7%), and New Town Holdings at 2.5 billion yuan (-50%) [46][47]. - Cumulatively, from January to November, Longfor Group reported a total sales amount of 93 billion yuan (-43%), while China Resources Land reported 229.1 billion yuan (-20%) [46][47]. Sector Performance - The SW Real Estate Index fell by 1.85%, underperforming the broader market, which saw the CSI 300 Index decline by 1.01%. The real estate sector ranked 29th out of 31 sectors [1][35]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for major A/H listed real estate companies for 2024/2025 are projected at 8.5/7.8 times, while property management companies are at 13.5/11.7 times [1][35].