石油化工行业周报：考虑到OPEC推迟增产，EIA小幅下调明年油价预测

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, with a recommendation to focus on high-quality refining companies and polyester sector players [3][24]. Core Insights - The EIA has slightly lowered its oil price forecast for 2024 to an average of $80 per barrel and $74 for 2025, while also adjusting natural gas prices to $2.20 and $3.00 per million British thermal units for the same years [3][6]. - Global oil demand is expected to grow, with IEA forecasting an increase of 840,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, while OPEC predicts growth of 1.61 million and 1.45 million barrels per day for the same years [3][8]. - The supply side is expected to be dominated by non-OPEC countries, with EIA projecting that nearly 90% of the oil supply growth will come from these nations [3][14]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices rose to $74.49 per barrel, a 4.74% increase week-on-week, while NYMEX prices increased by 6.09% to $71.29 per barrel [3][28]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased to 422 million barrels, down 1.425 million barrels from the previous week, indicating a supply tightness [3][32]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin decreased to $9.83 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline-WTI spread fell to $12.55 per barrel, below the historical average [3][24]. - The report anticipates improved refining profitability as oil prices adjust, with a gradual recovery expected as economic conditions improve [3][24]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have been declining, with the average price in East China at 4,677.80 RMB per ton, down 1.14% week-on-week [3][24]. - The polyester industry is showing signs of improvement, particularly in demand, as the market enters a seasonal peak [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Oriental Energy, as well as polyester companies like Tongkun Co. [3][24]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in the ethylene sector, particularly for companies involved in ethane-based production [3][24].