2025年度策略报告：重回科技主导产业

Group 1: Economic Cycle and Asset Classes - The current economic cycle is characterized by a weak inventory replenishment phase, with the U.S. and China both in a continuation of this cycle, which began in late 2023 and early 2024 respectively. The replenishment is expected to last for another 2-3 quarters, driven by growth-stimulating policies, although the extent of demand and price increases may be limited [89][90][94]. - The financial cycle indicates that the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are nearing their end, while domestic monetary policy in China is expected to remain accommodative. This environment is conducive to a recovery in risk assets, with a focus on the impact of a strong U.S. dollar on asset prices [97][100][102]. Group 2: A-Share Market Trends - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a weak recovery in earnings, supported by strong valuations. The market is expected to be underpinned by a macro environment of loose monetary and fiscal policies, with a key variable being whether fiscal stimulus can lead to a substantial stabilization in demand [114][120]. - The growth style is expected to dominate the market, with the technology sector positioned for significant performance in 2025. The Sci-Tech 50 Index is likely to strengthen, reflecting the overall trend towards growth-oriented investments [88][114]. Group 3: Industry Focus - The technology and high-end manufacturing sectors are projected to outperform other major industries in 2025. These sectors are seen as the dominant industries in the current mid-cycle phase, with hard and soft technology expected to show the highest growth rates [88][89]. - The transition in dominant industries during the mid-cycle is driven by the need for efficiency in technology and cost reduction in manufacturing. The focus on improving gross margins in manufacturing and revenue growth in emerging technology sectors is critical for sustainable development [88][94].