2025年纺织服饰行业投资策略：政策发力看好内需复苏，户外冰雪需求提振

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, focusing on domestic demand recovery and outdoor winter sports demand stimulation [1][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of domestic consumption as a key investment theme, with a focus on leading manufacturers and the outdoor winter sports sector benefiting from policy support [3][4]. - The textile manufacturing sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies that can leverage supply chain advantages and innovation [4][18]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Review: Manufacturing Recovery, Consumption at the Bottom - The textile and apparel sector has shown a 3.1% absolute return from January 1 to December 12, 2024, with a PE (TTM) ratio at a historical low of 19.9 times, indicating attractive valuation levels [3][8][11]. 2. Apparel and Home Textiles: Strong Outlook for Consumption Recovery - The report identifies three main themes for 2025: - Surge in outdoor winter sports demand, with a target market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, supported by government policies [3][29]. - Improved expectations for home textiles and children's clothing due to policy incentives, including subsidies of 15-20% [3][4]. - Focus on men's and women's apparel as economic recovery is expected to drive demand [4][28]. 3. Textile Manufacturing: Industry Prosperity and Focus on Leading Growth - The report suggests that the textile manufacturing sector is experiencing a recovery, with a focus on leading companies that can capitalize on supply chain expansion and innovation [4][18]. - Recommendations include companies like Nike, Huayi, and Shenzhou International, which are positioned to benefit from the recovery in orders and profitability [4][18]. 4. Fund Holdings: Decrease in A-share Textile Fund Holdings - As of Q3 2024, the report notes a decrease in the market value of textile fund holdings, with significant increases in holdings for companies like Anta Sports and Li Ning [14][18]. 5. Performance Tracking: High Elasticity in Textile Manufacturing - The textile manufacturing sector is noted for its high elasticity in performance, while the apparel sector continues to show signs of weak recovery [15][18]. 6. Export Trends: Steady Growth in Textile Exports - China's textile exports reached $273.06 billion from January to November 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.0%, indicating a stable export environment [18][19]. 7. Domestic Demand Trends: Recovery in Q4 - The report highlights a rebound in domestic demand, particularly in October, driven by seasonal factors and policy support, with a notable increase in retail sales for apparel [20][21].