Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 60, indicating a potential upside of 28.2% [3][16][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned in the self-owned brand home goods and trendy toy markets, capturing high growth in both sectors. The global market for self-owned brand retail is expected to grow at a double-digit CAGR, reaching USD 86.8 billion in the next three years [3][34]. - The company employs three operational models for rapid expansion: the partner model, agency model, and direct sales model, with expectations for continued growth in the partner model and an increase in overseas direct sales stores [3][21]. - Revenue and profit are projected to grow over 20% in the next three years, supported by a robust expansion strategy and a diversified product offering [3][20]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 77.38 billion in mainland China, a year-on-year increase of 14.0%, with TOP TOY revenue growing by 42.5% [20]. - The company plans to open 900-1100 new stores in 2024, with a significant portion in both domestic and overseas markets [21][20]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 44.1%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased overseas revenue contributions [29][20]. Market Positioning - The company has a strong competitive advantage in the self-owned brand home goods market, with a significant market share in both domestic and international markets [3][34]. - The trendy toy market is also expanding rapidly, with expectations for continued growth driven by consumer trends towards self-indulgence and unique product offerings [2][34]. - The company’s strategic acquisition of a stake in Yonghui Supermarket is expected to enhance its market presence and product diversity, further supporting its long-term growth objectives [23][24].
名创优品：双市场之捕捉者；出海打开成长空间；首予买入