银行业：2024年11月金融数据解读——居民中长期贷款改善延续，M1增速回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its dividend value [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the improvement in long-term loans for residents continues, supported by favorable housing policies, while corporate loans are under pressure due to weak demand and debt repayment factors [4]. - The growth of M1 has stabilized and rebounded, while M2 growth has declined, primarily due to a significant decrease in non-bank deposits [4]. - The report emphasizes that government bonds are expected to continue supporting social financing, with a notable increase in government bond issuance in November [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In November, new social financing amounted to 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion yuan, with a total social financing stock growth of 7.76% [2]. - The increase in RMB loans was 522.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 589.7 billion yuan, with government bonds contributing significantly to social financing growth [3]. Loan Performance - By the end of November, the growth rate of financial institution RMB loans was 7.7%, with new loans in November totaling 580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion yuan [3]. - Resident long-term loans showed a continued increase, with new long-term loans reaching 300 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.9 billion yuan [3]. M1 and M2 Analysis - M1 and M2 growth rates were -3.7% and +7.1%, respectively, with M1's decline showing signs of improvement due to positive real estate sales [4]. - The M1-M2 gap narrowed to -10.8%, indicating a potential recovery in cash flow [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the positive accumulation of fundamental factors will benefit bank credit issuance and asset quality, maintaining a favorable outlook for the banking sector [4]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Postal Savings Bank of China, Jiangsu Bank, and Changshu Bank [4].