汽车行业中央经济工作会议点评：以旧换新有望延续，整治内卷促价值竞争

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry plays a crucial role in sustaining China's economic growth, contributing significantly to industrial revenue, retail sales, tax revenue, and exports [2][3]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue boosting the automotive consumption market, with over 5.2 million vehicles being replaced or updated, driving more than 25% of passenger car sales in 2024 [3]. - The report highlights a shift from price competition to value competition in the automotive sector, driven by technological advancements and government regulations aimed at curbing excessive competition [3]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - In the first ten months of 2024, the automotive manufacturing industry generated revenues of 8.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.5% of total industrial revenues, and the retail sales of automotive consumer goods reached 4.0 trillion yuan, representing 10.1% of total retail sales [2]. - The automotive industry contributed 10.5% to the national tax revenue and accounted for 5.9% of total exports, with exports of vehicles and parts amounting to 1.4 trillion yuan from January to November 2024 [2]. Policy and Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" policy has led to significant increases in vehicle sales, with a notable rise in the sales volume of passenger cars in November 2024, which exceeded 3 million units for the first time, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [3]. - The report anticipates that the automotive market will continue to benefit from government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and regulating competition, with expectations for strong market performance in 2025 [3]. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the automotive market has experienced a price war, leading to a 4.8% year-on-year decline in profits for the automotive manufacturing sector in the first ten months of 2024, despite a rising penetration rate of new energy vehicles [3]. - The market share of leading companies remains stable, with a shift towards value-driven competition as companies like Huawei and Xpeng enhance their technological capabilities [3]. Export Growth - From January to November 2024, China's automotive exports reached 5.345 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.2%, with significant contributions from countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [8]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include BYD and Li Auto in the complete vehicle segment, and Huayu Automotive and Bertel in the intelligent components segment, among others [9].