光伏行业2025年度策略：山重水复疑无路，柳暗花明又一村

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the photovoltaic industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The global photovoltaic installation scale is steadily increasing, with significant changes in the supply side, particularly in silicon materials and batteries, which are expected to lead to profit recovery through price increases [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side optimization, particularly in silicon materials and batteries, as key drivers for the industry's growth [1][3]. - The demand for photovoltaic installations is projected to grow at a high rate of 10%-20% globally, driven by decreasing component costs and regional energy transition goals [1][67]. Summary by Sections Demand Side - Global photovoltaic installations continue to grow, with China's installations reaching 181.30 GW in the first ten months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.17% [63]. - The report forecasts that China's total installations will reach 260 GW in 2024 and 300 GW in 2025, with a focus on commercial photovoltaic systems [63][64]. Supply Side - The current production capacity in China exceeds 1000 GW, significantly surpassing industry demand, with silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries, and components showing substantial year-on-year growth [70]. - The report highlights that supply-side optimization is expected in 2025, particularly in the silicon material and battery segments, as the industry faces overcapacity [3][70]. Silicon Materials - Silicon material prices have been low but are expected to stabilize and recover in 2025, with an increase in the penetration rate of granular silicon [77][91]. - The report notes that the price of polysilicon has dropped from 65 RMB/kg to 40 RMB/kg, a decrease of approximately 38% [77]. Silicon Wafers - The silicon wafer segment is anticipated to benefit from improvements in the supply of silicon materials, with a focus on companies that can ensure supply stability [94][100]. - The report indicates that the price of silicon wafers has decreased significantly, with a drop of about 51% from early 2024 to November 2024 [94]. Battery Cells - The demand for battery cells continues to grow, but profitability remains under pressure, leading to an optimization of the market structure [6]. - The report suggests that leading battery manufacturers will focus on improving efficiency while second-tier manufacturers may be less willing to invest in fixed assets due to current losses [1][6]. Components - The report highlights that component prices are being supported by cost guidance, with a particular focus on the U.S. market for profitability [7]. Auxiliary Materials - The profitability of auxiliary materials is expected to recover, with material changes enhancing profit margins [8]. New Technologies - The report emphasizes the potential for new technologies, such as bifacial (BC) and heterojunction (HJT) cells, to drive growth and efficiency improvements in the industry [9][10].