经济形势跟踪：稳增长政策态度如何落地是市场关注焦点

Economic Policy and Market Sentiment - The central government's recent meetings on December 9 and 11-12 confirmed a more explicit growth-stabilizing policy stance compared to September, signaling a more proactive policy attitude[3] - Market expectations have significantly improved due to this policy shift, with economic activities in the real economy showing signs of recovery in October and November[3] - Manufacturing PMI indicates a notable recovery in domestic demand, with the PMI for domestic orders rising above 50, suggesting expansion driven primarily by improved domestic demand[3][4] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate sales have improved, with weekly sales in 30 cities returning to levels seen in the past three years, particularly in second-hand housing markets[4] - Despite improved sales, the recovery has not translated into increased real estate investment, with developers' direct bank loans showing weak growth[4] - The divergence between improved sales and declining investment may weaken the real estate market's ability to drive broader economic recovery[4] Consumer and Retail Trends - Retail and automotive sales saw absolute growth in November, although overall commodity retail sales experienced a decline, indicating challenges in stimulating consumer spending[4][12] - The automotive export volume has decreased from high levels, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, reflecting potential market saturation[12] Investment Sector Performance - Investment-related industries have shown resilience during the traditional off-season, with production and operational rates in sectors like steel and cement performing better than in the past three years[12] - However, the overall financing demand in the real economy remains weak, with a significant year-on-year decrease in non-special bond social financing from September to November[14] Financial Market Conditions - The financial market is currently experiencing a "bull market" in both stocks and bonds, driven by liquidity, but there are concerns about potential asset price bubbles[18] - Recent economic data improvements have not led to a corresponding rise in long-term bond yields, indicating a disconnect between market performance and economic fundamentals[18][20] Currency and Exchange Rate Management - The Chinese yuan continues to face depreciation pressure, prompting the use of "counter-cyclical adjustment factors" to stabilize the exchange rate[22] - The market is closely monitoring whether the yuan will breach the 7.3 level, which could signal a more permissive stance on currency depreciation by the government[22]