2025年汽车行业投资策略：智能为矛、需求为盾；新技术、新格局寻升级

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the automotive industry, indicating a favorable investment strategy for 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.0 percentage points as of December 12, 2024, with a year-to-date increase of 21.4%, ranking 7th among 31 sectors [3][6]. - The wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 21.43 million units from January to October 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, while new energy vehicles (NEVs) saw a significant increase of 35.0% [3][13]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to generate an additional demand of approximately 365,000 vehicles in 2025, with total passenger vehicle sales projected at 28.51 million units [3][19]. - The report anticipates that the penetration rate of high-level intelligent driving systems in vehicles priced above 100,000 yuan will reach 16.0% by 2025 and 80.0% by 2030 [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of December 12, 2024, the automotive sector's performance has been robust, with notable increases in commercial and passenger vehicles, achieving growth rates of 66.81%, 56.68%, and 35.08% respectively [6][11]. - The fund holdings in the automotive sector increased to 4.29% in Q3 2024, up by 0.35 percentage points from Q2 2024, with significant increases in passenger cars and commercial vehicles [11][12]. Complete Vehicles - The report emphasizes the importance of the "old-for-new" policy in stimulating market demand, projecting that it will contribute significantly to sales growth [3][19]. - BYD is leading the charge in intelligent driving technology, with plans to standardize advanced features in vehicles priced above 100,000 yuan, which is expected to influence other brands [3][19]. - The introduction of new models from major manufacturers like BYD, Geely, and Changan is anticipated to boost NEV sales, with projections of maintaining a growth rate of 20% to 25% annually [3][19]. Auto Parts - The report highlights the trend of "intelligent driving equality," which is expected to enhance the market share of cost-effective auto parts [3][19]. - Globalization remains a long-term growth path for leading auto parts companies, with current valuations reflecting expectations of U.S. tariff impacts [3][19]. - The report suggests monitoring key emerging companies in the supply chain, such as those associated with Huawei, Xiaomi, and XPeng [3][19].