2025年农林牧渔行业投资策略：周期不休，成长不止

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, emphasizing opportunities in meat chicken, aquaculture, and high-quality pig farming [3][24]. Core Insights - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the industry, with a focus on demand recovery in meat chicken and aquaculture, the importance of food security, and the potential for superior growth in quality pig enterprises [3][24]. - It emphasizes the continuous growth in the pet economy and the long-term potential of genetically modified crops, alongside the expansion of feed companies into international markets [7][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2024 Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Sector - The sector experienced a weak performance in 2024, with an absolute return of -7.8%, ranking 30th among 31 sub-industries [12][22]. - The relative return compared to the Wind All A index was -20.0% [12]. 2. Cyclical Opportunities - The report notes that the demand for meat chicken is expected to recover, with a focus on the elasticity of chicken consumption due to high proportions of dining and catering channels [24]. - Aquaculture prices are projected to stabilize and recover slightly in 2025, contingent on demand recovery [4][24]. - Concerns regarding food security are highlighted, with a focus on the planting and seed industry as key areas for investment [5][24]. 3. Continuous Growth - The pet food market is expected to see continued growth, with leading brands increasing their market share and profitability [7][24]. - The pet medical market is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 22% from 2018 to 2024 [8][24]. - The report anticipates that 2024 will mark the commercialization of genetically modified corn, with a focus on the profitability of seed companies [9][24]. 4. Investment Analysis - Key companies to watch include Saint Farm Development, Haida Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wen's Foodstuffs for the breeding chain; Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Suqian Agricultural Development for the planting chain; and Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipuhua for the pet economy [10][24].