11月社会零售品消费数据点评：11月社零同比+3%，品类增速分化

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [11]. Core Insights - In November 2024, the total retail sales increased by 3.0% year-on-year, which was below market expectations of 5.3%. The total retail sales reached 4.4 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month decline of 1.8 percentage points [3]. - The online retail growth rate was impacted by the pre-promotion of the Double Eleven shopping festival, with a combined growth rate of 3.3% for October and November. The online penetration rate in November was 33.7%, down from 35.6% in the previous year [3]. - The retail sales of essential goods such as food and household items showed strong growth, while categories like clothing and cosmetics experienced a decline [3]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for Q4 2024, driven by traditional consumption peaks and supportive policies, with a focus on e-commerce platforms and innovative retail formats [3]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - November retail sales totaled 4.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0% and a month-on-month decline of 1.8 percentage points. For the first eleven months, total retail sales reached 44.3 trillion yuan, growing by 3.5% year-on-year [3]. - Online retail sales in November were 1.4729 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.66% year-on-year, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 13.9 percentage points [3]. Category Performance - Essential goods such as grain and oil saw a growth of 10.1%, while categories like clothing and cosmetics faced declines of 4.5% and 26.4% respectively [3]. - The report notes that the "trade-in" policy has positively impacted the growth of home appliances, furniture, and automobiles, which showed significant increases [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on e-commerce companies like Alibaba, Meituan, JD.com, and Pinduoduo, as well as innovative retail formats and experiential stores [3]. - It also highlights the potential in the tourism sector and human resources services, indicating a broad range of investment opportunities across various segments [3].