2025年消费行业投资策略：全方位扩大内需，看好消费反弹

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the consumer sector, emphasizing the potential for a rebound driven by policy support and macroeconomic factors [3][75] Core Views - The report highlights the "wealth effect" as a key driver of consumer sector performance, with historical data showing that consumer bull markets are often preceded by policy stimulus and economic recovery [3][73] - The current policy focus on "comprehensively expanding domestic demand" is seen as a significant catalyst for the consumer sector's rebound, with fiscal and monetary policies expected to remain supportive [3][73] - The report identifies several emerging consumer trends, including ice and snow economy, IP economy, pet economy, silver economy, self-indulgence consumption, experiential consumption, and AI applications, as key areas for future growth [75][76] Macro Background - China's GDP growth is expected to stabilize around 5% in 2024-2025, transitioning from high-speed to high-quality growth [7][9] - Consumer spending as a percentage of GDP has remained stable at around 34%-47% over the past 20 years, with recent policy initiatives aimed at boosting consumer confidence and spending [9][10] - The 12th Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of stabilizing the property and stock markets, which are seen as crucial for improving economic expectations and fundamentals [13][22] Historical Consumer Bull Markets - The report identifies three major consumer bull markets in the past 20 years: 2009, 2015Q4-2017, and 2019-2021H1, each driven by different policy and economic factors [3][45] - The 2009 bull market was driven by the "4 trillion yuan" stimulus package, which led to a rebound in the consumer sector, particularly in industries like automobiles and home appliances [48][51] - The 2015Q4-2017 bull market was fueled by the monetization of shantytown renovation projects, which boosted the real estate sector and related consumer industries [54][56] - The 2019-2021H1 bull market was characterized by low valuations, ample liquidity, and post-pandemic recovery expectations, with strong performance in sectors like food and beverage, social services, and healthcare [67][70] Emerging Consumer Trends - Ice and Snow Economy: The ice and snow industry is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 and 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030 [79][80] - IP Economy: The rise of "Guzi Economy" (IP-driven consumption) is creating new consumer trends, with companies like Miniso and Guangbo benefiting from this trend [75] - Pet Economy: The aging population and declining birth rates are driving growth in the pet industry, particularly in pet food and healthcare [75] - Silver Economy: The aging population is creating opportunities in elderly-friendly products and services [75] - Self-Indulgence Consumption: Younger generations are increasingly prioritizing emotional value and personal satisfaction in their consumption habits, with products like JELLYCAT plush toys gaining popularity [75] - Experiential Consumption: The shift towards service-oriented consumption is driving demand for experiential retail and cultural tourism, including theme parks, concerts, and IP-driven tourism [76] - AI Applications: AI is expected to drive innovation and efficiency in consumer industries, particularly in e-commerce and education [76]