摩根士丹利-AI供应链：ASIC 2.0 – face-off on 3nm projects

Investment Rating - The report raises price targets for Alchip (to NT$3,988), TSMC (to NT$1,388), and MediaTek (to NT$1,688), reflecting greater AI ASIC and advanced packaging revenue assumptions in 2025 and 2026 [9][10]. Core Insights - The AI ASIC total addressable market (TAM) is forecasted to grow from US$12 billion in 2024 to US$30 billion in 2027, driven by strong competition from NVIDIA's AI GPU [2]. - Alchip is identified as the new Top Pick due to its significant price upside (45%) and higher exposure to AI (75% of revenue) compared to TSMC (30% price upside) [6][10]. - TSMC is expected to allocate 27% of CoWoS capacity for ASIC in 2025, with total AI semiconductors accounting for 30% of revenue in 2026 [6]. Summary by Sections ASIC Projects - AWS 3nm Trainium project is expected to significantly benefit Alchip, with a revenue forecast increase of 23% for 2026 due to the 3nm project upside [2][16]. - Google TPU v7 project is anticipated to contribute approximately US$2.1 billion in revenue for MediaTek in 2026 [3][30]. - Microsoft’s Maia200 project is expected to favor Marvell over GUC, leading to a price target trim for GUC [4][62]. Revenue Forecasts - Alchip's total revenue is projected to reach US$3,075 million in 2026, reflecting a 73% year-over-year growth [21]. - MediaTek's ASIC revenue forecast for 2026 has been raised from US$2 billion to US$2.5 billion [37]. - TSMC's AI revenue is expected to account for approximately 34% of its total revenue by 2027 [56]. Competitive Landscape - The competition between US and Asian ASIC service providers is intensifying, with Alchip and MediaTek emerging as key players [27][29]. - TSMC is positioned to benefit regardless of whether ASIC or GPU solutions dominate the market, with expectations of significant revenue contributions from both [45][50]. Market Trends - The report anticipates a 43% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the cloud AI semiconductor market from 2023 to 2030, potentially reaching US$500 billion by 2030 [59]. - The demand for advanced packaging solutions like CoWoS is expected to double in 2025, indicating strong growth in AI semiconductor production [46][54].