海外宏观周报（2024年第42期）：美国最新通胀点评与超级央行周前瞻

Inflation Insights - The US November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with expectations but higher than October's 0.1% increase[9] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with previous values[21] - PPI for November rose by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.6%, indicating upward inflation pressure[13] Economic Concerns - There are three main concerns regarding inflation: a potential wage-inflation spiral, rising inflation expectations due to political uncertainties, and an unexpected increase in PPI[11] - The 12-month rolling federal deficit reached $2.46 trillion, up from$2.26 trillion, reflecting a widening fiscal gap[26] Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut key interest rates by 25 basis points, while the Swiss National Bank lowered rates by 50 basis points, exceeding market expectations[14] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a hawkish stance, potentially reducing the number of rate cuts planned for next year[13] Market Trends - Recent trading patterns have shown a return to inflation and tightening trades, reflecting market reactions to inflation data and central bank policies[18] - The US Treasury yields for 10-year bonds increased by 25 basis points to 4.40%, while 2-year yields rose by 15 basis points to 4.25%[26] Global Economic Indicators - Eurozone industrial production remained flat in October, while Germany's trade surplus narrowed to €134 billion from €169 billion[34] - Japan's third-quarter GDP was revised up to a 0.3% increase quarter-on-quarter, indicating slight economic improvement[39]