全球宏观：特朗普2.0的确定性与不确定性再审视

Group 1: Policy Framework - Trump's 2.0 policy emphasizes "America First," focusing on "security" and "efficiency" to reshape the U.S. economy, politics, and diplomacy[2] - The new cabinet reflects a higher alignment with Trump's policies compared to the first term, reducing internal conflicts and accelerating policy implementation[26] - Key policies include immigration, tariffs, and tax cuts, which are expected to have significant impacts on the U.S. economy and global markets[29] Group 2: Economic Impacts - Immigration policy tightening may raise wages by limiting labor supply but could also exacerbate structural imbalances in the job market[3] - Tariff policies are expected to have limited effects on trade deficits but serve as negotiation tools to encourage manufacturing return to the U.S.[3] - Tax cuts are projected to boost corporate investment and consumer spending, but their long-term benefits may be offset by tariffs and increased fiscal deficits[3] Group 3: Market Projections - The dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 100-105 in the short term, with a potential shift from a strong to a weak dollar as fiscal deficits rise[5] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to oscillate between 3.5%-4.0% in the short term, with a mid-term equilibrium level of 4.5%-5.0%[5] - The combination of high growth, high inflation, and high interest rates is unlikely to be sustainable in the long term, necessitating market adjustments[5]