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中国11月经济数据点评:政策效应持续显现,供给改善在前
交银国际证券·2024-12-17 03:09

Economic Overview - China's economy continues to show steady recovery, with industrial added value growing by 5.4% year-on-year in November, slightly up from 5.3% in October[2] - Manufacturing investment remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3% in November, although fixed asset investment overall grew by only 2.4%[6] Consumer Trends - Retail sales in November increased by 3.0% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in October, primarily due to the earlier timing of promotional events like "Double Eleven"[3] - The "old-for-new" policy continues to drive consumer spending, with household appliances seeing a significant year-on-year growth of 22.2%[3] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing sectors, such as aerospace and electronic communication equipment, reported year-on-year growth rates of 35.4% and 8.8%, respectively[6] - The service sector's production index rose by 6.1% year-on-year, supported by strong performances in IT services and financial services[3] Investment Insights - Real estate investment saw a narrowing decline of 11.5% year-on-year in November, an improvement from the previous month's 12.4% drop[7] - Private investment decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, but excluding real estate, it grew by 6.2%[6] Financial Indicators - Total social financing in November was 2.34 trillion yuan, a decrease from 3.57 trillion yuan in October, with a notable drop in new RMB loans by 5.8 billion yuan year-on-year[7] - M1 growth rate improved to -3.1% in November, a significant recovery from -6.1% in October, indicating potential positive effects from debt replacement[8]