宏观和大类资产配置周报：2025年稳增长是最大的工作重点

Economic Data - November CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.5%[1] - In November, exports in USD terms grew by 6.7% year-on-year, and imports fell by 3.7%[1] - New social financing in November reached 2.34 trillion CNY, with new RMB loans amounting to 580 billion CNY; M2 grew by 7.1% year-on-year[1] Market Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 1.01%, and the CSI 300 futures dropped by 0.75% this week[2] - Coal futures decreased by 0.47%, while iron ore futures rose by 0.31%[2] - The yield on 10-year government bonds declined by 18 basis points to 1.78%[2] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Recommended asset allocation order: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[3] - The focus for 2025 is on maintaining stable economic growth, with a target growth rate around 5%[3] - Emphasis on promoting reasonable price recovery and increasing fiscal deficit rates to stimulate the economy[3] Risk Factors - Global inflation may decline slowly, and there is a risk of rapid economic downturns in Europe and the US[3]